Why this page exists
To know whether the pricing model can sustain the company, you need to know what revenue looks like at every realistic scale. This page projects revenue across three growth scenarios over 36 months, broken down by month, by cohort, by add-on, and by Founder cash injection.
Every number here is conservative by design — assumed conversion rates are at or below industry benchmarks for premium subscription apps, and churn is higher than what AI-driven cannabis tools typically see in early data.
The Copilot uplift — applied to all scenarios
The AI Copilot is the centerpiece Studio feature. Adding it to the model shifts three key assumptions:
| Metric | Pre-Copilot | With Copilot |
|---|
| Studio attach rate | 30% | 40-45% |
| Studio monthly churn | 3% | 2% |
| Pro -> Studio Year 1 upgrade rate | 15% | 22-25% |
| Year 3 ARR (Moderate) | $876K | ~$1.15M |
| Year 3 ARR (Aggressive) | $5.28M | ~$6.85M |
Core assumptions
These assumptions hold across all three scenarios. The only thing that changes is the install volume.
Pricing (Phase 1 launch model)
| Product | Price |
|---|
| Guest | $0 |
| Pro Monthly | $9.99/mo |
| Pro Annual | $79.99/yr |
| Studio Monthly | $19.99/mo |
| Studio Annual | $149.99/yr |
| Pro Founders Lifetime | $199 once (cap 500) |
| Studio Founders Lifetime | $499 once (cap 100) |
| Historical Import (6mo) | $14.99 |
| Historical Import (12mo) | $29.99 |
| Historical Import (full) | $49.99 |
Conversion funnel (no free trial — direct paywall)
| Step | Rate |
|---|
| App install -> Sees paywall | 100% |
| App install -> Paid (direct) | 8% |
No free trial. This is a deliberate decision (see Rollout Plan). The conversion rate is lower than a trial-gated funnel (~12%) because we filter out low-intent users at the door. The trade-off: every paying user is a real signal from day one, AI / server costs are zero on non-paying users, and ARPU on the paying base is higher because we’re not absorbing trial churn.Apple’s 14-day refund window provides automatic risk reversal without us having to market a trial. Tier mix (of paying users)
| Tier | Share |
|---|
| Pro Monthly | 50% |
| Pro Annual | 15% |
| Studio Monthly | 22% |
| Studio Annual | 8% |
| Founders (one-time, captured separately) | 5% (in launch month only) |
Churn
| Tier | Monthly Churn |
|---|
| Pro Monthly | 5% |
| Pro Annual | 30% annual (effective ~3% monthly) |
| Studio Monthly | 3% |
| Studio Annual | 25% annual (~2.3% monthly) |
Add-ons (Pro users only — Studio includes Historical Import)
| Add-on | Attach Rate of Pro Users | Avg Spend |
|---|
| Historical Import (any tier) | 25% | $25 (blended across 6mo / 12mo / full) |
Apple App Store fees
| Item | Cut |
|---|
| First year of subscription | 30% |
| After year 1 (or with Small Business Program) | 15% |
Founders launch boost (one-time, Month 0-1)
The Founders SKUs are sold-and-done. They’re not part of the recurring model — they’re a one-time cash injection at launch.
| Cohort | Buyers (assumed sellout) | Price | Cash |
|---|
| Pro Founders Lifetime | 500 | $199 | $99,500 |
| Studio Founders Lifetime | 100 | $499 | $49,900 |
| Total Founders cash at launch | 600 | | $149,400 |
Founders sellout assumption: With pre-launch outreach to 30-50 cannabis influencers and an organic launch announcement, 100 Studio Founders is realistic in the first 30 days. 500 Pro Founders is achievable in 60-90 days. If sellout takes longer, the Founders revenue is delayed but the pool stays the same — the cap is a cap, not a deadline.
Scenario A — Conservative (SEO only, no paid acquisition)
Top-of-funnel: 200 app installs / month (organic SEO traffic from TIWIH website).
Conversion math (steady state)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Monthly installs | 200 |
| New paid subscribers (8% direct) | ~16 |
| New Pro Monthly subscribers | 8 |
| New Pro Annual subscribers | 2 |
| New Studio Monthly subscribers | 4 |
| New Studio Annual subscribers | 2 |
Year 1 revenue (Conservative)
| Month | Total Pro Subs | Total Studio Subs | Recurring MRR | Add-ons | Founders Cash | Cumulative Gross Revenue |
|---|
| 1 | 10 | 6 | $200 | $50 | $149,400 | $149,650 |
| 2 | 20 | 12 | $390 | $55 | $0 | $150,095 |
| 3 | 30 | 18 | $560 | $60 | $0 | $150,715 |
| 6 | 55 | 30 | $1,050 | $65 | $0 | $154,400 |
| 9 | 75 | 42 | $1,400 | $70 | $0 | $159,200 |
| 12 | 90 | 52 | $1,675 | $75 | $0 | $164,500 |
Year 2 (Conservative)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Subscribers at end of Y2 | 200 (130 Pro / 70 Studio) |
| MRR at end of Y2 | $2,950 |
| Year 2 gross revenue | ~$30,000 |
Year 3 (Conservative)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Subscribers at end of Y3 | 285 (185 Pro / 100 Studio) |
| MRR at end of Y3 | $4,150 |
| Year 3 gross revenue | ~$43,000 |
Scenario B — Moderate (SEO + content + Reddit + influencer)
Top-of-funnel: 2,000 app installs / month (SEO + active content marketing + cannabis Reddit presence + influencer partnerships).
Conversion math (steady state)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Monthly installs | 2,000 |
| New paid subscribers (8% direct) | ~160 |
| New Pro Monthly | 80 |
| New Pro Annual | 24 |
| New Studio Monthly | 35 |
| New Studio Annual | 21 |
Year 1 revenue (Moderate)
| Month | Pro Subs | Studio Subs | Recurring MRR | Add-ons | Founders Cash | Cumulative Gross Revenue |
|---|
| 1 | 104 | 56 | $2,055 | $500 | $149,400 | $151,955 |
| 2 | 200 | 110 | $3,990 | $530 | $0 | $156,475 |
| 3 | 290 | 160 | $5,800 | $545 | $0 | $162,820 |
| 6 | 525 | 295 | $10,530 | $620 | $0 | $200,860 |
| 9 | 695 | 405 | $14,025 | $670 | $0 | $246,000 |
| 12 | 825 | 490 | $16,945 | $720 | $0 | $294,000 |
Year 2 (Moderate)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Subscribers at end of Y2 | 2,500 (1,650 Pro / 850 Studio) |
| MRR at end of Y2 | $33,500 |
| Year 2 gross revenue | ~$362,000 |
Year 3 (Moderate)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Subscribers at end of Y3 | 3,650 (2,400 Pro / 1,250 Studio) |
| MRR at end of Y3 | $48,900 |
| Year 3 gross revenue | ~$546,000 |
Scenario C — Aggressive (paid acquisition + content + creators)
Top-of-funnel: 12,000 app installs / month (paid ads on Reddit + Google + cannabis influencer partnerships, $5-10K/mo ad spend).
Conversion math (steady state)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Monthly installs | 12,000 |
| New paid subscribers (8% direct) | ~960 |
| New Pro Monthly | 480 |
| New Pro Annual | 144 |
| New Studio Monthly | 211 |
| New Studio Annual | 125 |
Year 1 revenue (Aggressive)
| Month | Pro Subs | Studio Subs | Recurring MRR | Add-ons | Founders Cash | Cumulative Gross Revenue |
|---|
| 1 | 624 | 336 | $12,340 | $3,000 | $149,400 | $164,740 |
| 2 | 1,210 | 660 | $23,910 | $3,100 | $0 | $191,750 |
| 3 | 1,755 | 960 | $34,800 | $3,200 | $0 | $229,750 |
| 6 | 3,150 | 1,750 | $62,810 | $3,485 | $0 | $429,050 |
| 9 | 4,170 | 2,390 | $83,615 | $3,620 | $0 | $686,000 |
| 12 | 4,950 | 2,915 | $101,165 | $3,755 | $0 | $919,000 |
Year 2 (Aggressive)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Subscribers at end of Y2 | 14,500 (9,650 Pro / 4,850 Studio) |
| MRR at end of Y2 | $193,500 |
| Year 2 gross revenue | ~$2.13M |
Year 3 (Aggressive)
| Metric | Value |
|---|
| Subscribers at end of Y3 | 21,750 (14,500 Pro / 7,250 Studio) |
| MRR at end of Y3 | $290,000 |
| Year 3 gross revenue | ~$3.20M |
Side-by-side summary
MRR by month, all scenarios
| Month | Conservative | Moderate | Aggressive |
|---|
| 1 | $200 | $2,055 | $12,340 |
| 3 | $560 | $5,800 | $34,800 |
| 6 | $1,050 | $10,530 | $62,810 |
| 12 | $1,675 | $16,945 | $101,165 |
| 24 | $2,950 | $33,500 | $193,500 |
| 36 | $4,150 | $48,900 | $290,000 |
ARR (Annualized Run Rate) at end of each year
| Year-end | Conservative | Moderate | Aggressive |
|---|
| Year 1 | $20,100 | $203,300 | $1,213,980 |
| Year 2 | $35,400 | $402,000 | $2,322,000 |
| Year 3 | $49,800 | $586,800 | $3,480,000 |
Total gross revenue 3 years
| Scenario | Year 1 | Year 2 | Year 3 | 3-Year Total |
|---|
| Conservative | $164K | $30K | $43K | $237K |
| Moderate | $294K | $362K | $546K | $1.20M |
| Aggressive | $919K | $2.13M | $3.20M | $6.25M |
What the model is sensitive to
The numbers above assume the steady-state mix (50% Pro Monthly / 15% Pro Annual / 22% Studio Monthly / 8% Studio Annual / 5% Founder cohort). Three variables move the answer dramatically:
Sensitivity 1 — Studio attach rate
If Studio captures more than 30% of paying users (vs. baseline 30%), every revenue number rises ~15-25%. If it falls below 20%, revenue drops 10-15%.
| Studio Share | Year 1 Moderate Revenue |
|---|
| 20% (low) | ~$255K |
| 30% (baseline) | $294K |
| 40% (high) | ~$345K |
| 50% (very high) | ~$400K |
Sensitivity 2 — Install-to-paid conversion
This is the highest-leverage variable. Without a free trial, the rate is direct install -> paid, which is much more sensitive than trial-gated funnels. Industry baseline for premium subscription apps with no trial is 5-15% depending on how strong the paywall pitch is.
| Install-to-Paid | Year 1 Moderate Revenue |
|---|
| 4% (weak — paywall is failing) | ~$220K |
| 6% (concerning) | ~$255K |
| 8% (baseline) | $294K |
| 12% (strong) | ~$370K |
| 15% (excellent) | ~$430K |
Why no trial: Free trials would lift conversion in absolute terms (~12% combined vs. ~8% direct), but the trial users have lower intent, churn faster, and consume server / AI cost during the trial without paying. Direct paywall conversion — though lower — produces a higher-quality paid base. At any given conversion rate, trial users churn ~2x faster than direct-paywall users in the first 90 days.
Sensitivity 3 — Annual mix
Annual subscribers churn less and lock in revenue. Push annual harder via discounts and conversion-flow design.
| Annual Mix | Year 1 Moderate Revenue | Year 2 Revenue Lift |
|---|
| 15% annual (baseline) | $294K | baseline |
| 30% annual | ~$315K | +15% |
| 50% annual | ~$345K | +30% |
Path to $1M ARR (the first major milestone)
Required to hit $1M ARR:
- ~5,500 Pro subscribers OR
- ~4,200 Studio subscribers OR
- ~3,400 in our default mix (65% Pro / 35% Studio)
| Scenario | Hits $1M ARR At |
|---|
| Conservative | Never within 3 years (caps around $50K ARR) |
| Moderate | ~Month 24-28 |
| Aggressive | ~Month 10-11 |
The realistic path: Launch in Conservative mode, grow into Moderate by Month 6 via content + Reddit + Founder evangelism, then layer paid acquisition once Founders deliver social proof. Most subscription companies that hit $1M ARR follow this exact ladder.
Path to break-even / profitability
Operational costs (estimated):
- Convex + Supabase + Vercel infrastructure: ~$500-2,000/mo at scale
- AI API costs (Claude + Gemini + Lyria + others): ~$2-8 per active Studio user/mo
- Trigger.dev + ancillary: ~$200-500/mo
- Domains + tools + monitoring: ~$200/mo
- Founder/team overhead (when applicable)
| Scenario | Break-even Month | Notes |
|---|
| Conservative | Month 0 (Founders cash covers operating costs Y1) | But not sustainable past Y1 without growth |
| Moderate | Month 1-2 (Founders + early MRR) | Sustainable from Day 1 |
| Aggressive | Month 0 | Profitable through scale |
How tier mix evolves over 36 months
We expect the mix to shift toward Studio over time as users mature:
| Month | Pro % | Studio % | Why |
|---|
| 1 | 70% | 30% | Most new users start at Pro |
| 6 | 67% | 33% | Some Pro users upgrade to Studio |
| 12 | 64% | 36% | Studio AI features fully shipped |
| 18 | 60% | 40% | AI media may begin shipping (Phase 3) |
| 24 | 55% | 45% | AI media drives Studio uplift |
| 36 | 50% | 50% | Studio is the dominant tier at maturity |
Founders revenue share — long-term cost
Founders earn 30% rev share on attributed signups for life. At scale, this is a real expense.
| Scenario | Total Founder Referrals at Y3 | Annual Rev Share Paid Out |
|---|
| Conservative | ~600 (1 per Founder/yr) | ~$36K/yr |
| Moderate | ~3,000 (5 per Founder/yr) | ~$180K/yr |
| Aggressive | ~6,000 (10 per Founder/yr) | ~$360K/yr |
What to track once we’re live
Real numbers will diverge from these projections. Here’s the dashboard we should watch:
| Metric | Baseline Target | Concerning Threshold |
|---|
| Install -> Paid (direct, no trial) | 8% | < 5% |
| Refund rate (Apple 14-day window) | < 10% of payments | > 20% |
| Pro -> Studio upgrade rate | 15% in Year 1 | < 8% |
| Pro Monthly churn | 5% | > 8% |
| Studio Monthly churn | 3% | > 5% |
| Pro Annual mix | 25% of Pro | < 15% |
| Studio Annual mix | 30% of Studio | < 20% |
| Historical Import attach (Pro) | 25% | < 15% |
| Founders sellout rate | 100 Studio / 30 days, 500 Pro / 90 days | > 6 months unsold |
| AI cost per Studio user | < $5/mo | > $10/mo |
